The South China Sea is therefore a frontier of particular interest for Beijing. Azerbaijan I write about Chinese political economy, capital markets and investments. This phenomenon is as old as history itself. China’s fear is maritime – isolation from world markets. As tensions between the US and China rose in 2018, so did discussion of Thucydides’s trap. In truth, what Thucydides said about democracies and oppressive regimes was far more sophisticated and complex than a simplistic slogan invoked by defeatists. Armenia China's Peaceful Rise and the Thucydides Trap China first proposed a “peaceful rise” as early as by the end of 2003. He is certainly correct if by rising he means it has surged since Mao Zedong died. In truth, what Thucydides said about democracies and oppressive regimes was far more sophisticated and complex than a simplistic slogan invoked by defeatists. Paraguay If only one of China’s littoral nations allied with it, China’s strategic problem might be solved. Mozambique Are the U.S. and China headed there? This problem is compounded by the current lack of a common enemy—it was the Soviet Union in the 1970s and both were united against terrorism in the 2000s—and exacerbated by slowing global growth. Sri Lanka China is not pressing the United States in any dimension, and for this reason, American rhetoric is not matched by the frenzied production the U.S. puts in motion when it is concerned. The likely result of this competition was identified by the great historian Thucydides, who wrote: “It was the rise of Athens and the fear that this instilled in Sparta that made war inevitable.” Dr. Friedman is also a New York Times bestselling author. Palestine The United States is achieving a tactical advantage because it is imposing a confrontation at a moment when China still finds itself not strong enough for open struggle. The Thucydides Trap leads us to believe a U.S.-China war is inevitable. Faroe Islands In 2017, Professor Graham Allison from Harvard University published the book "Destined For War," where he wrote about how China and the U.S. could be heading toward a collision course. New Caledonia Wallis and Futuna Islands Hypothetically, China could forge an alliance with Russia, a nearby power with which it shares some common competitors. Virgin Islands (British) The United States has no interest in a war in the Western Pacific. COVID-19 is the latest in a series of factors that are dissolving common interests, worsening strategic stresses, and pushing America and China into what Allison calls the ‘Thucydides trap’. And to the China watcher, the process of power consolidation by the Chinese president, Xi Jinping, reaching its terminus—with his ideology being written into the party’s constitution in 2017 and term limits being scrapped in 2018—must have represented a sea change in policy away from Deng Xiaoping’s “hide your strength, bide your time,” to a more confident and confrontational one. Marshall Islands Palau Brazil In essay form, describe the economics of China’s Rise, the logic of the “”Thucydides Trap,”” and the strategies of Chinese foreign policy under Xi Jinping. Anything that could reduce China’s economy for the long term by about 20 percent is a desperate vulnerability. British Indian Ocean Territory The Thucydides Trap leads us to believe a U.S.-China war is inevitable. According to Allison, the Thucydides Trap’s formation depends on two factors: “the rising power [China]’s growing entitlement, sense of its own importance, and demand for greater say and sway, on the one hand, and the fear, insecurity, and determination to defend the status quo this engenders in the established power [United States] on the other.” But the United States has even more devastating options. Heard and Mc Donald Islands The problem is that Russia’s focus must be on its west and on the Caucasus. Bahamas Aaland Islands Ireland Opinions expressed by Forbes Contributors are their own. Pakistan Engineering is part of war but not its essence. Does the rise of China mean an end to US supremacy and a risk of major war? The closer you are to weapons development, the more you are aware of its shortcomings. But this is one of the great defects of military analysis: counting the hardware. Other best-selling books include Flashpoints: The Emerging Crisis in Europe, The Next Decade, America’s Secret War, The Future of War and The Intelligence Edge. The argument that the U.S. may overreact is based on this error. Guernsey I write about cross-border investing and financing, aviation and PE/VC. A perilous trap but uncertain outcome Today, an irresistible rising China is on course to collide with an immovable America. The U.S.-China 'Thucydides Trap': A View from Beijing by Mo Shengkai Chen Yue “It was the rise of Athens, and the fear that this inspired in Sparta, that made war inevitable.” —Thucydides The Truth About the U.S.-China Thucydides Trap George Friedman, Geopolitical Futures July 17, 2020 We remember Thucydides as a historian thanks to … The USA and China are now entangled in the Thucydides Trap; this is the entire story. On Tuesday, President Trump shifted from praising China’s response to COVID-19 to speaking of the ‘Chinese virus’. Cocos (Keeling) Islands More than perhaps any country in the world, China cannot risk a breakdown in the global trading system. Gupta cites an article in the South China Morning Post by journalist Alex Lo, who said that the two countries were actually caught in a ‘Thucydides trap’. Moldova, Republic of But the policy couldn't stop China from getting established as a dominant power who can pose threat on the unipolar world order controlled by the United States of America. China Iran Turks and Caicos Islands Maldives The most important thing to understand about China is that its domestic market cannot financially absorb the product of China’s industrial plant. Solomon Islands I travel extensively and have worked in 10 countries and have been based in China for the last 10 years. A perilous trap but uncertain outcome Today, an irresistible rising China is on course to collide with an immovable America. The two countries’ strongest trading and economic interdependence has proven unable to prevent a political standoff between Washington and Beijing. The problem is a possible clash between American exceptionalism and the “China Dream.” The former is defined by freedom, individualism, democracy and the idea that the U.S. has a (missionary) mission to transform the world. It suggests that a war is likely to happen when an emerging power, say, a ranked number 2 power (#2), threatens to displace an existing hegemon (#1). Based on this, it would appear that China wants to avoid the Thucydides Trap. Chad As the economic pie shrinks and inequality widens, governments may reach for the opiate of nationalism to give the masses. The reason is Thucydides’s Trap, a deadly pattern of structural stress that results when a rising power challenges a ruling one. Basically, the Thucydides Trap says that as a rising power challenges the dominance of an established power, that dominant power is likely to respond with violence. Dr. Friedman has briefed numerous military and government organizations in the United States and overseas and appears regularly as an expert on international affairs, foreign policy and intelligence in major media. His books have been translated into more than 20 languages. But he is implying more: that China is rising to the point that it can even challenge the United States. St. Helena Eritrea EY & Citi On The Importance Of Resilience And Innovation, Impact 50: Investors Seeking Profit — And Pushing For Change, Michigan Economic Development Corporation With Forbes Insights, China Launches Anti-Monopoly Investigation Into Alibaba, Russian Billionaire Mordashov Exits Gold Race With A Handy Profit, Hong Kong Billionaire Li Ka-Shing’s Business Falsely Linked To U.S. Slovakia The term ‘Thucydides Trap’ has become a hot topic after American political scientist Graham T. Allison published his book ‘Destined for War: Can America and China Escape the Thucydides Trap?’ in 2017. Mauritania Pitcairn You may opt-out by. Turkey Australia Doing so might hurt the U.S. but not existentially. The United States has been in combat frequently, launching aircraft against land targets, conducting active anti-submarine searches and coordinating air defense systems for large fleets in combat conditions. Guam China faces a non-military threat from the United States, which relies on exports to China for about half of 1 percent of its GDP. Cuba Namibia And though allies can drag a nation into conflicts it doesn’t want to be part of, having no allies deprives a nation of strategic options. Nigeria You can draw upon the PPT slides as well, but do not simply copy them. And China Escape The Thucydides Trap? In the U.S. military, I have noted people rolling their eyes when they hear about the superweapons being produced. Myanmar Democratic Republic of the Congo Samoa (Independent) Tuvalu The “Thucydides trap” refers to the theory that when a rising power threatens a ruling power, the result is often war. U.S., China and Thucydides. French Guiana The term ‘Thucydides trap’, coined by American political scientist Graham T. Allison, refers to a situation when an emerging power threatens to displace an existing great power. Panama China lacks that. It has no ground force it could lend to China, nor does it have a naval force that would be decisive in its Pacific operations. But for China, if international trade collapsed, internal declines in consumption would come on top of the loss of foreign markets. Tunisia My book "Aircraft Valuation: Airplane Investments as an Asset Class" was recently released by Palgrave Macmillan. The difference is massive. Graham Allison’s “Destined for War: Can America and China Escape Thucydides’s Trap?” (2017) may have a destiny as century’s reference. Vanuatu If China is a rising power, it is rising on a very slippery slope without recourse to warfare. Country Antigua And Barbuda On the contrary, both countries’ leaderships realize what is at stake, and neither ultimately wants to derail the mutually beneficial economic relationship that forms the foundation of their economies. Italy Comoros Senegal Mali Similarly, there is no reason to believe that Trump desires military conflict with China. What has been unfolding between China and the U.S. clearly indicates that it is the U.S. that has been actively creating a Thucydides Trap for the two countries' relations. The controversial “Thucydides trap” argument has sparked a heated debate since 2013, when President Xi Jinping of China told a cluster of western guests: “We must all work together to avoid Thucydides’ trap.” Later, this concept was elucidated by Professor Graham Allison in his articles, talks and famous book Destined for War: Can America and […] Zambia I have held senior management and investment positions, advisory and board roles and am now an academic and researcher. The United States is not giving up the Pacific – it fought wars in Korea and Vietnam as well as World War II to keep it. Rwanda Swaziland Anguilla The error is the idea that China is a rising power. Just go to Google News and type in “Thucydides Trap” and you’ll find that it is mentioned at least weekly in one article on US-China relations or another. Thucydides’ concerns were recently echoed by Graham Allison in his book, Destined for War: Can America and China Escape Thucydides’s Trap? Blacklist, Freezer Rush Helps Drive Copper Towards A Record $10,000 A Ton, China Urges U.S. To Stop Bullying With Blacklist, Vows To Take Action, China Has A $15 Trillion Problem With Economic Reality, Trump Signs Bill That Could Delist Chinese Companies From U.S. Stock Exchanges, Singapore To Open For Business Travel In January Under ‘Bubble’ Arrangement, Iron Ore Rockets To $160 A Ton And China Cries Foul, Hyundai Buys Boston Dynamics From SoftBank In $1.1 Billion Deal. The latter is more ambiguous, but centers around collective effort, socialism, prosperity and national glory. Serbia As China emerged as a major economic and political power, however, there has been increasing concern regarding the role it plays in international trade and affairs over the last decade. Thucydides’s Trap teaches us that on the historical record, war is more likely than not. by Author(s): Robert B. Zoellick. Timor-Leste Kenya If the US and China come to blows, it is likely that they will have failed to learn Thucydides’ timeless teachings about the arrogance of power. United States of America And that possibility is there. And so Jacek and I will continue to duel. If there is a “Thucydides Trap,” it is the trap of hubris, which great powers fall into over and over again. All rights reserved. China's Peaceful Rise and the Thucydides Trap China first proposed a “peaceful rise” as early as by the end of 2003. Suriname The error is the idea that China is a rising power. There’s also the problems of reliable information and accurate interpretation. Central African Republic Andorra Switzerland But war isn’t inevitable, until it is. Kiribati Thucydides trap is really a clear and analogous concept to explain why the USA has been trying to obstruct the emergence of China as a rising power in the international system. Bahrain People fret about a "Thucydides Trap" of inevitable conflict between China and the United States. Benin But he is implying more: that China is rising … China should avoid the Thucydides trap with India Modi is facing a lot of opposition for not being transparent about the actual situation at the border K S Venkatachalam June 30, 2020 His most recent book, THE STORM BEFORE THE CALM: America’s Discord, the Coming Crisis of the 2020s, and the Triumph Beyond, published February 25, 2020 describes how “the United States periodically reaches a point of crisis in which it appears to be at war with itself, yet after an extended period it reinvents itself, in a form both faithful to its founding and radically different from what it had been.” The decade 2020-2030 is such a period which will bring dramatic upheaval and reshaping of American government, foreign policy, economics, and culture. Algeria But is a 2,400-year-old school of thought really what the U.S. should base its foreign policy on? The Chinese have to force the U.S. into deep retreat to secure access. I write about cross … Based on this, it would appear that China wants to avoid the Thucydides Trap. Thailand In the wake of China returning a seized U.S. drone, I can tell you that virtually everyone in U.S.-Chinese relations has a similar dread about Trump's tweet-based “policy” toward China. Indonesia If there is a “Thucydides Trap,” it is the trap of hubris, which great powers fall into over and over again. China, the United States and the Thucydides Trap By J Brooks Spector • 26 May 2020 Illustrative image | sources: President of the People's Republic of China Xi Jinping. He also believed … And tradition and lessons passed down from generation to generation of admirals are extremely valuable. The likely result of this competition was identified by the great historian Thucydides, who wrote: “It was the rise of Athens and the fear that this instilled in Sparta that made war inevitable.” Yes, it’s risen faster, further on more dimensions than any country ever in history, and therefore has arrived. I am a senior investment professional at Neo-Criterion Capital, a fund management house focused on pan-China public equities. Toll Free: 1-888-982-8217 Belgium Netherlands So if that sentence from Thucydides is correct, then China is clearly a rising power that will want her “place in the sun” — which will lead ineluctably to a collision between rising China (Athens) instigated by the presumably setting U.S. (Sparta), which will see military preemption as the only recourse to avert a loss of power and a Chinese-dominated world. Philippines Burundi Sint Maarten security, financial stability) or risk the collapse of the system which enabled its rise. International Callers: 1-512-687-3444. Honduras Are China and the US going to be able to escape Thucydides’ Trap? History is littered with examples of things that seemed like good ideas at the time, but that turned out to be disastrous. In 2015, Harvard political scientist and professor Graham Allison identified a scenario he calls the Thucydides Trap. 2-3 pages single spaced. Tanzania Monaco Ethiopia Thucydides was a fifth century BC Greek philosopher. And like all great philosophers, he has many things to teach us, even if his teaching is inappropriately applied. But is a 2,400-year-old school of thought really what the U.S. should base its foreign policy on? Gupta cites an article in the South China Morning Post by journalist Alex Lo, who said that the two countries were actually caught in a ‘Thucydides trap’. French Polynesia Lebanon But the U.S. is still the superior power. Lithuania Friedman received his bachelor’s degree from the City College of the City University of New York and holds a doctorate in government from Cornell University. Peru According to Allison, the Thucydides Trap’s formation depends on two factors: “the rising power [China]’s growing entitlement, sense of its own importance, and demand for greater say and sway, on the one hand, and the fear, insecurity, and determination to defend the status quo this engenders in the established power [United States] on the other.” The U.S. is choosing to press China hard, but the risk of doing so is low. Sweden New Zealand As China emerged as a major economic and political power, however, there has been increasing concern regarding the role it plays in international trade and affairs over the last decade. Isle of Man The question for any military is not what equipment it has but how long it takes to jury-rig the breakdown. He believed it was the threat, the Spartans felt with the rise of Athens that lead to the two city-states clashing swords. Finland Seychelles The USA and China are now entangled in the Thucydides Trap; this is the entire story. Latvia Georgia Saint Martin While there have been flash points in the 40-year relationship—such as the Kosovo embassy bombing in 1999 and the Hainan Incident in 2001—there was little, on the surface, to presage the sharp deterioration in ties from 2018. Fiji Gabon Tonga Gambia Bonaire, Saint Eustatius and Saba The military problem is simple. Vietnam American Samoa Israel Angola Western Sahara South Africa Lao People's Democratic Republic In essay form, describe the economics of China’s Rise, the logic of the “”Thucydides Trap,”” and the strategies of Chinese foreign policy under Xi Jinping. CHINA AND THE UNITED STATES ARE HEADING TOWARD A WAR NEITHER WANTS. He is certainly correct if by rising he means it has surged since Mao Zedong died. But the policy couldn't stop China from getting established as a dominant power who can pose threat on the unipolar world order controlled by the United States of America. Yes, China has grown, but its growth has made it a hostage to its foreign customers. The U.S. Navy controls the Pacific from the Aleutians to Japan, Korea, Taiwan, the Philippines, Indonesia and Australia, giving Washington an old and sophisticated alliance system that China cannot match. So I think the Thucydides concept, while valid, doesn’t apply to this case. Denmark He analysed the reasons around it and came to the conclusion that if a rising power threatens to displace a ruling power it could lead to war. Togo It was coined and is primarily used to describe a potential conflict between the United States and the People's Republic of China. This misuse of the concept is quite sad, because Thucydides actually does have a very useful story to tell policy-makers in the United States. Haiti Iraq Guyana David Yu Contributor. This misuse of the concept is quite sad, because Thucydides actually does have a very useful story to tell policy-makers in the United States. Greek historian Thucydides wrote about the Peloponnesian war. If the U.S. simply bought fewer Chinese products, Washington would damage China without firing a shot. Athens’ rise was a necessary but insufficient condition for war; human emotion played an essential part, too. Thucydides was a fifth century BC Greek philosopher. Under these circumstances, the idea of initiating a war is farfetched. You can draw upon the PPT slides as well, but do not simply copy them. The “Thucydides trap” refers to the theory that when a rising power threatens a ruling power, the result is often war. Opinions expressed by Forbes Contributors are their own. If both countries have fallen into the trap already, going by the ongoing trade conflict and signs that other fronts—from trade and technology to human rights and capital—will open up, one way forward is a fuller reading of The History of the Peloponnesian War by Thucydides. Please visit my website www.davidyuda.com. Micronesia, Federated States of The fear might be wholly justified, or it might not be justified at all (or somewhere in between). Uzbekistan Jacek Bartosiak, who wrote of the Thucydides trap for us last week, is never simplistic, but I think he is wrong in some respects. Allison’s Thucydides trap has set the political scaffolding of the tense global geopolitical competition between China and the US. Singapore Bosnia and Herzegovina Burkina Faso Grenada Nearly 20 percent of China’s gross domestic product is generated from exports, 5 percent of which are bought by its largest customer, the United States. U.S. President Donald Trump (left) and Chinese President Xi Jinping (right) meet in Hamburg, Germany in July 2017. Falkland Islands The economic interconnectedness of the world has given leaders new ways to apply political pressure, pursue strategic competition, and strive for fair bilateral relations. Christmas Island Kyrgyzstan The basic concept is that, when a rising power is observed by an existing great power, the existing great power becomes fearful. Malaysia This was widely said in the early stages of World War II and repeated throughout the Cold War. Mayotte